At a time when global demand for beef is surging, South African producers find themselves caught in a painful paradox as national exports plummeted by 26% in 2025. This downturn is primarily fueled by a devastating outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that has swept across seven of the country’s nine provinces, triggering a massive 69% drop in shipments to China (formerly a cornerstone of the export market). For local farmers, the crisis is a battle for survival against a highly contagious virus that is draining resources and halting the momentum of one of the country’s most vital agricultural sectors.
The immediate impact of the outbreak is being compounded by a “perfect storm” of climate extremes that has left farmers reeling. In KwaZulu-Natal, dairy operations have seen milk yields collapse by thousands of liters a day within forty-eight hours of infection, while veterinary costs skyrocket. Simultaneously, the Western, Eastern, and Northern Capes are gripped by a drought more severe than the historic 2015 “Day Zero” crisis, forcing farmers to choose between the exorbitant cost of supplemental feed or watching their herds perish as dams run dry. In response to this mounting pressure, the government launched a critical vaccination strategy aiming to inoculate 80% of the country’s 12 million cattle to stabilize the industry and restore international confidence.
Looking ahead, the road to recovery remains uncertain as the threat of a shrinking national herd looms over the economy. The overlapping shocks of disease and erratic weather patterns warn of a future where food prices could rise and livestock numbers may take years to recover. For South African agriculture to regain its footing, the lessons learned from this double-sided disaster must lead to a more proactive and fortified livestock sector.
